To start, let me add the much needed context that this article was written on October 5th, 2024. Thank you, proceed.
The mistake people make when arguing the Hall-of-Fame case for Mike Evans is that they bring up career receiving yards. This is troubling, as there are several members of the top 20 (and even top 10) all-time receiving yards leaders that are not in the HOF (and others who will likely get in, but it’s taking a very long time).
In my eyes, there’s only 1 true path to Mike Evans being a bonafide hall-of-famer: touchdowns, baby.
He currently sits at 100 touchdowns in his career. Already an impressive feat, but there’s some ways to go to reach HOF-lock status. He’s residing in “Frank Gore” territory – all-time great and respected NFL vets, but uncertain to join the HOF due to lack of playoff impact and overall awards. He sits one touchdown below Seahawks ‘Mount-Rushmore’ WR Steve Sargent, whom he will very likely pass this season.
5 more touchdowns, he ties Tim Brown. 10 More, he passes Barry Sanders. But in my estimation, the sweet spot for Mike is between 17 to 22 more touchdowns. This range would put him anywhere above Antonio Gates, and possibly above Larry Fitzgerald. And, most importantly, it would thrust him into the exclusive 700 club.
What is the 700 Club? An arbitrary goal-post I have created to try to assign a specific, clear and definable barrier to entry into the NFL Hall of Fame. More on this below:
Players in the 700 Club (700+ Points Scored All-Time, Post-Merger, Excluding Kickers):
Also, in descending order: Most Touchdowns Scored (All-Time, Post-Merger):
- Jerry Rice – 208 TDS
- Emmitt Smith – 175 TDS
- LaDanian Tomlinson – 162 TDS
- Randy Moss – 157 TDS
- Terrell Owens – 156 TDS
- Marcus Allen – 145 TDS
- Marshall Faulk – 136 TDS
- Cris Carter – 131 TDS
- Marvin Harrison – 128 TDS
- Adrian Peterson – 126 TDS
- Walter Payton – 125 TDS
- Larry Fitzgerald – 121 TDS
- Antonio Gates – 116 TDS
- Mike Evans – 100 TDS
In terms of points scored, the 17-22 range would leave him with anywhere between 710 and 740 scored in his career, good enough for 12th or 13th all-time (excluding pure kickers, since the merger). Evans currently sits at 608. The optical hurdle for him, in my eyes, is passing Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Gates. If he can make the 700 club, it would be very hard to argue against him reaching the hall. All 13 members listed above have a gold jacket hanging in their closet.
Will reaching the 700 club actually guarantee anything? Knowing NFL HOF voters, nothing is certain. But for Evans, this seems to be his best shot at cementing his spot among the NFL elite.
There are 4 players in the running for the 700 Club, seen below with their total touchdowns, points scored, and year drafted:
- Mike Evans – 100 TDS – 608 PTS – (2014)
- Derrick Henry – 99 TDS – 598 PTS – (2016)
- Davante Adams – 96 TDS – 584 PTS – (2014)
- Tyreek Hill – 90 TDS – 540 PTS – (2016)
These guys are on high alert, which means if they can have 2-3 more elite seasons, they will be in great position to join the illustrious group.
There are a few other players who have had a fantastic beginning to their 700 Club campaign, but still relatively early into their careers. It’s difficult to predict outcomes in the NFL that rely on career longevity. With that being said, here’s who I think can sustain their great starts over the course of the next decade or so:
- Johnathan Taylor – 48 TDS – 288 PTS – (2020)
- Ceedee Lamb – 38 TDS – 232 PTS – (2020)
- Justin Jefferson – 35 TDS – 216 PTS – (2020)
- Ja’Marr Chase – 32 TDS – 192 PTS – (2021)
- Kenneth Walker III – 22 TDS – 132 PTS – (2022)
- Jahmyr Gibbs – 15 TDS – 90 PTS – (2023)
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